Water Tower Research Publishes Initiation of Coverage Report on Brazil Potash Corp., “Breaking Import Dependence to Supply Rapidly Growing Brazilian Ag Industry”

January 20, 2026, ST. PETERSBURG, FL – Water Tower Research (www.watertowerresearch.com) has published an Initiation of Coverage Report on Brazil Potash Corp. (NYSE AM: GRO) titled, “Breaking Import Dependence to Supply Rapidly Growing Brazilian Ag Industry”. The report can be accessed here.

Brazil Potash Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada, with its principal operating presence in Brazil. The company is focused on the development of large-scale, strategically located potash assets intended to serve Brazil’s domestic agricultural market, which is one of the fastest growing and most structurally undersupplied fertilizer markets globally. Brazil Potash’s core asset is the Autazes Potash Project, located in the state of Amazonas, ~120 kilometers southeast of Manaus.

Autazes is being designed as an underground potash mine targeting granular potassium chloride (KCl) production for direct sale into Brazil’s fertilizer distribution network. Over the past several years, the company has advanced the project through resource delineation, feasibility-level engineering, environmental permitting, community engagement, and commercial contracting. In 2025, Brazil Potash achieved several de-risking milestones, including the execution of long-term take-or-pay offtake agreements covering the majority of planned initial production, the advancement of capital-light infrastructure solutions through BOOT structures with relevant partners, and continued progress on permitting and indigenous consultation frameworks. These developments position the company to transition from late- stage development toward construction readiness, subject to financing.

Across the pre-revenue peer universe, EV/NPV multiples remain compressed, generally ranging from 0.04x to 0.07x, reflecting financing risk, permitting uncertainty, and long-dated cash flow realization. Early-stage projects such as Sage Potash trade at deep discounts due to unresolved technical and regulatory hurdles, while more advanced developers such as Highfield Resources command modestly higher multiples tied to permitting progress. Brazil Potash sits at the lower end of the pre-revenue range, despite its scale, advanced commercial positioning, and binding offtake coverage, and trades at a material discount to intrinsic value when one considers the capex-lite BOOT strategy and take-or-pay offtake agreements already in place. This discount persists despite Autazes’ unique domestic-market positioning and import-parity pricing exposure.

Among operating producers, EV/EBITDA multiples cluster tightly within a mid-cycle range of 5.5x to 7.5x, reflecting long-life assets, relatively stable demand, and mature operating profiles. Nutrien and Mosaic command premium positioning due to scale, reserve depth, and diversification, while K+S trades at a discount reflecting higher cost structure and European exposure. ICL’s valuation benefits from specialty fertilizer mix but remains anchored by potash import economics in Brazil. Importantly, none of the incumbent producers benefit from structural cost advantages in the Brazilian market, as all supply is delivered via import chains.

Against this backdrop, Brazil Potash’s projected steady-state margin profile screens favorably despite its lack of operating history. By eliminating ocean freight and export port costs while selling into a market priced at import parity, Autazes is positioned to capture margins comparable to, or exceeding, large incumbent producers on a delivered basis. This dynamic explains why Brazil Potash’s implied steady-state EV/EBITDA multiple sits below operating peers despite higher projected margins, reinforcing the view that valuation upside is primarily driven by execution and de-risking rather than margin expansion assumptions.

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