Co-Packaged Optics on Ethernet Switches Will Take Time to Materialize

REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Feb. 2, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — According to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for information about the telecommunications, networks, and data center industries, the Ethernet Switch Data Center market is forecast to grow at a nearly double-digit CAGR between 2022 and 2027, surpassing $100 B in cumulative spending over the next five years. Our current market outlook doesn’t include potential additional sales associated with Co-packaged optics (CPOs) as customers’ interest and technology readiness are still a moving target.

“Although we expect to see some near-term slowdown in revenue growth in 2023, we forecast data center switch sales to grow high-single-digit to double-digits for every year of our forecast horizon,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Most of the growth will be propelled by Cloud Service Providers (SPs) which are expected to comprise 60 percent of the data center switch sales by 2027 and to drive significant adoption of 400 Gbps, 800 Gbps, and 1600 Gbps speeds.

“We expect 400 Gbps and higher speeds to comprise nearly 70 percent of data center switch sales by 2027. The proliferation of Artificial Intelligence workloads will further accelerate this adoption. Nevertheless, as network speeds increase, pluggable optics may reach physical limitations and no longer satisfy thermal and density requirements. Therefore, the industry has started to develop alternative solutions, such as CPO. However, CPO adoption will depend on several factors including 1) whether CPO can bring significant cost and power savings compared to pluggables; 2) customers’ roadmaps and interests. Our current forecast for CPO doesn’t show significant volume adoption within our forecast period,” added Boujelbene.

Additional highlights from the Ethernet Switch – Data Center 5-Year January 2023 Forecast Report:

• 800 Gbps is expected to eclipse 400 Gbps by 2025. The availability of 800 Gbps optics and 25.6 T chips propelled the adoption of 800 Gbps switch ports. This adoption was first spearheaded by Google but other Cloud SPs are expected to follow suit.
• SONiC adoption is expected to accelerate over our forecast horizon, achieving a 10-20 percent penetration rate in Tier 2/3 Cloud SPs and large enterprises by 2027.

The Dell’Oro Group Ethernet Switch – Data Center 5-Year Forecast Report provides a comprehensive overview of market trends and includes tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, port shipments, and average selling price forecasts for various technologies: Modular and Fixed by Port Speed; Fixed Managed and Unmanaged by Port Speed; SONiC by customer segments; and Co-Packaged Optics by Port Speed. We forecast the following port speeds: 1/10/25/40/50/100/200/400/800/1600 Gbps, and SerDes speed. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at dgsales@delloro.com.

Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.

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SOURCE Dell’Oro Group